Appendix:  Contract List, Avian Influenza (H5N1) Market

(Note that contract descriptions in the table below are generic; they apply to a multiple contracts introduced over time, which differ in certain parameters such as dates and counts. Click on the Contract Number to be taken to an explanation of the contract, sources of information, and background information.)

* An update of the prospectus occurred on November 26th, 2007 to account for a doubling of the weekly bonus from Avian$2 to Avian$4 per contract set.

1.1 Will Phase Four of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period be announced before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the contract or an announcement of the Phase Four Pandemic Alert Period by the WHO during the contract period, whichever comes first. Currently, Phase Three of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period has been announced. Phase Three is defined as: “Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.”

In order for Phase Four of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period to be met, the avian flu situation must involve the following: “Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human spread but spread is highly localised, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans. “

The current status of the Pandemic Alert Period will be determined by the UI Health Prediction Market managers according to information provided by the WHO at the following website: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html. Continuing information on the current Pandemic Alert Period can be found at this address. The designation of phases, including decisions on when to move from one phase to another, is made by the Director General of WHO.

A complete summary of phases of alert in the WHO global influenza preparedness plan can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5/en/index.html

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1.2 Will Phase Five of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period be announced before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the contract or an announcement of the Phase Five Pandemic Alert Period by the WHO during the contract period, whichever comes first. Currently, Phase Three of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period has been announced. Phase Three is defined as: “Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.”

In order for Phase Five of the WHO-defined Pandemic Alert Period to be met, the avian flu situation must involve the following: “Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localised, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly more adaptive to humans, but may not be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).”

The current status of the Pandemic Alert Period will be determined by the UI Health Prediction Market managers according to information provided by the WHO at the following website: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html. Continuing information on the current Pandemic Alert Period can be found at this address. The designation of phases, including decisions on when to move from one phase to another, is made by the Director General of WHO.

A complete summary of phases of alert in the WHO global influenza preparedness plan can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5/en/index.html

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1.3 Will the World Health Organization issue an emergency travel advisory relating to H5N1 from the opening date through the closing date of the contract?

Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

A Information regarding previous Emergency Travel Advisories issued by the WHO can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_03_15/en/.

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2.1 Will N cases of H5N1 in humans be confirmed by WHO before a specified closing date?

“N”, the target number of cases, and the closing date will be specified in the final definition of the contracts. Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon that closing date or WHO confirmation of the Nth case of Avian Influenza A/H5N1 in humans during the contract period, whichever comes first. The UI Health Prediction Market managers will determine liquidation values of this contract set based on information obtained from this WHO website. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of H5N1 Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically the date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms two days before the end of the contract period but is not hospitalized until 1 day after the contract period, the case will be added to the total count within the contract period.

Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, or does not confirm cases in a timely fashion, those cases will not be counted towards the total number of WHO confirmed cases for purposes of determining liquidation values. Once trading has ended in a set of contracts and liquidation values have been declared, those values will be regarded as final – they will not be changed even if a subsequent announcement by the WHO alters the outcome. Archived releases on the number of human cases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/en/index.html

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2.2 Will the number of new WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during the month B be greater than or equal to the total number of cases during month A?

The comparison months A and B will be specified in the final definition of the contracts. Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon announcement of the Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) reported to the WHO at the end of month B. The Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will determine liquidation of this contract based on comparison of the total cumulative number of WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during month B, with the total number of cases confirmed by the WHO in month A. The Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the total number of cases during a particular month. The date of earliest indication is typically date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by WHO. Totals for the preceding month will be available on the market website, as well as on the electronic broker screen. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms two days before the end of month A but is not hospitalized until 1 day of month B, the case will be added to the total count within the contract period.

Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, or does not confirm cases in a timely fashion, those cases will not be counted towards the total number of WHO confirmed cases for purposes of determining liquidation values. Once trading has ended in a set of contracts and liquidation values have been declared, those values will be regarded as final – they will not be changed even if a subsequent announcement by the WHO alters the outcome. Archived releases on the number of human cases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/en/index.html

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2.3 Will the number of new WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during quarter x of year 200y be greater than the total number of cases during the corresponding quarter of the previous year?

The quarter and year will be specified in the final definition of the contracts. Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon announcement of the Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) reported to the WHO at the end of the specified quarter. In order to allow for lags in reporting, liquidation of these contracts will be delayed until the end of the month after the specified quarter. The number of cases reported by the last day of that month will be used as the official count for purposes of declaring liquidation values. The Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the total number of cases during a particular quarter. The date of earliest indication is typically date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the earliest of the following dates will be used: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by WHO. Totals by quarter will be posted on the market website and the electronic broker screen.

Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, or does not confirm cases in a timely fashion, those cases will not be counted towards the total number of WHO confirmed cases for purposes of determining liquidation values. Once trading has ended in a set of contracts and liquidation values have been declared, those values will be regarded as final – they will not be changed even if a subsequent announcement by the WHO alters the outcome. Archived releases on the number of human cases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/en/index.html

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3.1 Will the first WHO-confirmed human case of H5N1 in North or South America occur before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of this contract will occur upon the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or an announcement by the WHO of the first case of avian influenza A/H5N1 in humans on either the continent of North America or South America during the contract period, whichever comes first. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, no human cases of H5N1 have been confirmed by the WHO in North or South America. Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically the date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, those cases will not be counted as WHO confirmed cases. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

Maps of current geographic areas with confirmed cases of H5N1 avian influenza can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx

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3.2 Will a new WHO-confirmed human case of H5N1 in Europe, as defined by the WHO Regional Office for Europe, occur on or after a specified opening date of the contract but before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of this contract will occur upon the ending date of the contract or an announcement by the WHO of the first case of avian influenza A/H5N1 in humans in Europe during the contract period, whichever comes first. The opening and closing dates will be given in the final definitions of the contracts. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, no human cases of H5N1 had been confirmed by the WHO in the region of Europe and Eurasia reported on by the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by the WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, those cases will not be counted as WHO confirmed cases. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

Maps of current geographic areas with confirmed cases of H5N1 avian influenza can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx A list of countries in the region reported on by the Who Regional Office for Europe can be found at: http://www.euro.who.int/countryinformation. Note that this list includes countries, such as Russia and Israel, which are not regarded as part of Europe in other contexts.

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3.3 Will the first WHO-confirmed human case of H5N1 in Hong Kong occur before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur on the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or an announcement by the WHO of the first case of H5N1 in humans in Hong Kong during the contract period, whichever comes first. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, no human cases of H5N1 in Hong Kong had been confirmed by the WHO. Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically the date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by the WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, those cases will not be counted as WHO confirmed cases. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

Maps of current geographic affected areas with confirmed human cases of H5N1 avian influenza can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx

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3.4 Will the first WHO-confirmed human case of H5N1 in Singapore occur before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or an announcement by the WHO of the first case of avian influenza A/H5N1 in humans in Singapore during the contract period, whichever comes first. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, no human cases of H5N1 in Singapore have been confirmed by the WHO. Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically the date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by the WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

Maps of current geographic affected areas with confirmed cases of H5N1 avian influenza can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx

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3.5 Will a new WHO-confirmed human case of H5N1 in Africa, as defined by the WHO Regional Office for Africa, occur from a specified opening date of the contract through a specified closing date?

Liquidation of this contract will occur upon the ending date of the contract or an announcement by the WHO of the an additional case of avian influenza A/H5N1 in humans in Africa during the contract period, whichever comes first. The opening and closing dates will be given in the final definitions of the contracts. Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by the WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, those cases will not be counted as WHO confirmed cases. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

A list of countries in the region reported on by the Who Regional Office for Africa can be found at: http://www.who.int/about/regions/afro/en/. Note that countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Tunisia, which are regularly regarded as part of Africa in other contexts, are not included on this list. Occurrences in those countries will not affect payoff of this contract.

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3.6 Will the number of new WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans in the world except for Indonesia and Vietnam be greater than or equal to the total number of cases in the two countries from a specified opening date of the contract through a specified closing date?

Liquidation of the contract will be determined based on the WHO’s latest announcement of the avian influenza situation. The Iowa Health Prediction Market mangers will use the date of earliest indication of Avian Influenza as reported by the WHO to determine the date of WHO confirmation. The date of earliest indication is typically date of initial symptoms. In the event this information is not available, the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers will use the earliest of the following dates: date of treatment sought, date of testing sample drawn, date of sample test, date of death, date of announcement by the WHO. For example, if a patient first exhibits symptoms on before the contract expires but is not hospitalized after the contract closing date; the case will be added to the total for the contract. Also note that if the WHO does not receive test samples of suspected H5N1 infection for some cases, those cases will not be counted as WHO confirmed cases. Latest information and news releases can be found at: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

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4.1 Will a HIGH-PATH H5N1 case be confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) in a native, non-captive avian species in North or South America before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or the announcement by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) of a HIGH-PATH H5N1 case in a native, non-captive species on either the continent of North America or South America during the contract period, whichever comes first. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, NO cases of HIGH-PATH H5N1 in a native, non-captive avian species have been confirmed in either North or South America. Determination of the occurrence of this event will be determined by the Iowa Health Prediction Market managers through release of information by the OIE, which can be found at: http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/public.php?page=weekly_report_index&admin=0.

“Native, non-captive avian species” refer to avian species that are not domesticated. Examples include shorebirds, ducks, and other waterfowl. There are two types of avian influenza (AI) that are identified as H5N1. A difference exists in the virus classification; one is low pathogenic (LPAI) and the other is highly pathogenic (HPAI). Low Pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI): LPAI occurs naturally in wild birds and can spread to domestic birds. In most cases it causes no signs of infection or only minor symptoms in birds. These strains of the disease pose little significant threat to human health, and are common in North and South America and around the world. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI): HPAI spreads rapidly, has a higher death rate in birds than LPAI, and is often fatal in domestic avian species such as chickens and turkeys. As of the opening date of this market, HPAI H5N1 is not currently present in North or South America despite its rapid spread in other parts of the world. HPAI has been identified in wild and domestic avian species in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

Maps of current geographic affected areas reporting confirmed occurrence of H5N1 avian influenza in wild avian species and poultry can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx

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4.2 Will a HIGH-PATH H5N1 case be confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) in commercial poultry in North or South America before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or the announcement by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) of a HIGH-PATH H5N1 case in commercial poultry on either the continent of North America or South America during the contract period, whichever comes first. As of the opening of the Avian Influenza Prediction Market, NO cases of HIGH-PATH H5N1 in commercial poultry have been confirmed in either North or South America. Determination of the occurrence of this event will be determined by the UI Health Prediction Market managers through release of information by OIE, which can be found at: http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/public.php?page=weekly_report_index&admin=0.

Commercial poultry include domesticated fowl: chickens, turkeys, waterfowl, and game birds, except doves and pigeons, which are maintained primarily for commercial production of eggs and meat (according to the USDA). There are two types of avian influenza (AI) that are identified as H5N1. A difference exists in the virus classification; one is low pathogenic (LPAI) and the other is highly pathogenic (HPAI). Low Pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI): LPAI occurs naturally in wild birds and can spread to domestic birds. In most cases it causes no signs of infection or only minor symptoms in birds. These strains of the disease pose little significant threat to human health, and are common in the North and South America and around the world. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI): HPAI spreads rapidly, has a higher death rate in birds than LPAI, and is often fatal in domestic avian species such as chickens and turkeys. HPAI H5N1is not currently present in North or South America despite its rapid spread in other parts of the world. HPAI has been identified in wild and domestic avian species in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

Maps of current geographic affected areas reporting confirmed occurrence of H5N1 avian influenza in wild avian species and poultry can be found at: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx

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4.3 Will there be a new H5N1 case in domesticated mammals outside the continent of Asia confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) before a specified closing date?

Liquidation of contracts in this set will occur upon the closing date specified in the final definition of the contract or the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) confirmation of a NEW case of H5N1 in a domesticated mammal (e.g., cats, dogs) outside the continent of Asia during the contract period, whichever comes first. Cases of H5N1 have been confirmed in tigers and leopards (in zoo captivity) and domestic cats. H5N1 has been found in other mammalian species, although not domesticated, which include a civet, a mink, and a stone marten. Although cases in domesticated mammals have occurred outside the continent of Asia, this contract seeks information on NEW cases.

Determination of the occurrence of this event will be by the UI Health Prediction Market managers using release of information by the OIE, which can be found at: http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/public.php?page=weekly_report_index&admin=0