Iowa Health Prediction Market

Information About Specific Markets

Seasonal Influenza Activity in Iowa (October - April)
The objective of this market is to provide short-term forecasts of seasonal influenza activity in the state of Iowa. The CDC 5-activity level map of the U.S. is used as the official report of influenza activity. Trading is allowed in activity level contracts from one to six weeks in advance.

Seasonal Influenza Activity in Nebraska (October - April)
The objective of this market is to provide short-term forecasts of seasonal influenza activity in the state of Nebraska. The CDC 5-activity level map of the U.S. is used as the official report of influenza activity. Trading is allowed in activity level contracts from one to six weeks in advance.

Seasonal Influenza Activity in North Carolina (October - April)
The objective of this market is to provide short-term forecasts of seasonal influenza activity in the state of North Carolina. The CDC 5-activity level map of the U.S. is used as the official report of influenza activity. Trading is allowed in activity level contracts from one to six weeks in advance.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (December - March)
Prediction of the effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine is the goal of this market. The specific question addressed is whether it will be more effective, as effective, or less effective in combating the virus strains circulating in the U.S. this year than the vaccine used last year proved to be against strains circulating that year. Measurements of vaccine effectiveness among members of the U.S. military service as computed and recorded by the Naval Health Research Center is the basis for contracts traded in the market.

Avian Influenza (February 2007 - tbd)
Probability predictions of answers to questions relating to the spread of the H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus is the objective of this market. Categories of specific questions include Health Policy responses, the number of infected humans, the location of human infections and the spread of the virus among animals.