Iowa Health Prediction Market

What we do

Public health agencies perform surveillance for a number of infectious diseases. However, traditional infectious disease surveillance systems focus on the past: surveillance is by definition a retrospective activity. In some cases, the information is no longer clinically relevant by the time it becomes available. For example, influenza surveillance data is typically one to two weeks old by the time it is available at the state or regional level.

Many healthcare workers possess current information which could be used to predict future infectious disease trends. For example, clinical microbiologists are often the first to know that influenza is circulating in the community and if asked, could provide a short-range estimate of future influenza activity in their community. Microbiologists and other healthcare workers have a unique insight into possible future trends for a wide range of topics and have formed opinions as to the likely prevalence of certain diseases in their communities. In some cases these opinions are based on observations, and in other cases they may be based on scientific knowledge or past experiences.

However, such disparate information cannot be aggregated and analyzed, using standard methods, with the speed necessary to ensure clinical relevance. Furthermore, the subjective nature of this information makes it even more difficult to analyze and interpret.

Prediction markets provide a way to collect and analyze information in real-time in an easy-to-interpret graphical format. We think prediction markets can accurately forecast the future activity of a wide variety of infectious diseases and related phenomena by aggregating the expert opinion of healthcare professionals.

What are Prediction Markets?	Information about Specific Markets
Media Coverage	Contact Information